Canada Inflation Slows to 2.8%, Below Expectations
The consumer price index rose 2.8% last month from a year ago, following a 2.9% increase in January, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday in Ottawa. That’s the slowest pace since June and below the median estimate of 3.1% in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Traders boosted their bets on a June rate cut, pricing in around a three-quarters chance of one. The odds were about 50/50 on Monday.
The Canadian dollar weakened and bonds surged, pushing the yield on two-year Canadian government debt to 4.16%, down about 14 basis points on the day. That’s the biggest intraday drop since Feb. 20.
On a monthly basis, the CPI climbed 0.3%, versus expectations for a 0.6% increase, and rose 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The Bank of Canada’s two preferred core inflation measures also slowed, averaging a 3.15% yearly pace from 3.35% a month earlier, slower than the 3.35% expected. A three-month moving average of the rate fell to an annualized pace of 2.23%, from 3.12% in January. Other key core measures also showed disinflation.
The new data bolsters the case for policymakers to soon take their foot off the monetary brake. Bank of Canada officials have said they’re waiting for enough data to convince them that inflation is on a sustained march to the 2% inflation target before they begin cutting interest rates.
This is the only inflation report before the next rate decision on April 10, when the central bank will also update its economic projections. Economists widely expect the bank to hold policy rates at 5% for a sixth straight meeting, with the easing cycle to begin around midyear.