Canadian immigration policy will seek to slow population growth, but the impact will vary by province. In a new BMO Capital Markets research note, the bank explains regions with the highest number of temporary residents will be impacted most. As a result, that means shelter costs in BC and Ontario will see the most immediate impact from slower population growth. Regions less dependent on temporary residents are expected to have a near-term buffer, but it’s too early to dismiss a knock-on effect.

Canada reversed course on its population growth plan and will now try to shrink its population. This plan primarily involves tapering the number of temporary residents (TRs) in the country, such as those visiting on a study permit. Provinces with the largest inflow of TRs relative to the local populations will see the biggest impact.

“Immigration target changes are likely to weigh heavier in British Columbia and Ontario over the coming three years,” explains BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic.