TRREB data shows home prices didn’t just climb in February, but made a 5-digit jump. Prospective buyers with their buyer-feet ice cold in the snow, stood puzzling and puzzling—asking, how can it be so?

Greater Toronto real estate prices are once again climbing, and wasting no time. The TRREB benchmark home rose 1.1% (+$12,400) to $1,091,300 in February. A typical home is still down 17.7%  (-$234,700) compared to the same month last year. 
No, that wasn’t a typo. Monthly price growth suddenly changed course, with prices rising 5-digits. It was the first increase since rate hikes began in March 2022, and the largest since a month prior. A single month increase of this size is unusual during any period. But it’s especially difficult to grasp when the narrative is that buyers need more leverage.

It’s impossible to nail down what caused the shift without asking every buyer. Even then, what a buyer says can differ greatly from their reasons. We know. Your neighbor bought a half-dozen pre-sale condos to help with supply, not speculation. That aside, two major factors are contributing—mortgage rates and the Bank of Canada (BoC). 

Fixed-term mortgage rates were falling at the end of last year, and the start of this year. That was the read by many agents as a sign that the bottom is near, and many assume falling rates mean higher prices.