The last five years have taken Ontario’s housing market on a turbulent ride, marked by sharp rises and steep downturns. New insights from Teranet’s latest Market Insight Report, drawing from 2024 Ontario land registry data, provide a clearer view of how pandemic-fuelled market activity culminated across the province. 

The report explores trends such as a boom in new condo completions, mounting pressure on buyers who purchased homes during the peak and the emergence of single-party multi-property investors as major market players.

Condos accounted for more than 65% of sales in Toronto in 2024

In Toronto, condos made up the majority of property transfers, accounting for more than 65 per cent of all sales in 2024. But there’s more happening beneath the surface.

The city’s resale condo market was sluggish, marking its lowest activity in a decade. Yet, this downturn contrasts directly with a boom in newly completed condos. About 15,000 new condo units became ready for occupancy in 2024, a 78 per cent jump over the previous year.

“This flood of about 15,000 new condo properties that became available in 2024 was an important piece of data to fully understand the condo market,” the report states, suggesting the abundance of new units could partly explain the quiet resale market.

An eye-opening number of Canadians still approach mortgage shopping like it’s a bake sale run by their grandmother.

According to fresh data from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario (FSRAO), nearly half of folks believe banks will treat them fairly — the kind of blind faith usually reserved for seeing-eye dogs and weather apps before a wedding.

Alberta is the only province making the most of Canada’s most valuable natural resource—young workers. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) interprovincial migration data shows it was the only province that managed to attract young workers, aged 25 to 45 years old. This demographic is critical to regions, driving economic growth and long-term prosperity. It’s the only affordable province that continues to make net gains from other provinces, proving they’re doing more than just providing affordable housing. Alberta is actually trying to win them over, and it’s working. 

Why Young Workers Are Better Than Gold—Even Black Gold 

Young workers are one of the most important demographics for understanding a region’s future. These workers, between 25 and 44 years old, are at peak productivity, driving consumption (homes, cars, families) and taking career risks (entrepreneurship, big investments). Their migration patterns reveal which regions are primed for real opportunities, not just cheap housing. 

It also happens to be important years for risk, which plays a large part in developing a career and wealth. These are the years that people take big bets such as rapid career development or entrepreneurship. Since wealth and retirement are also primarily based on compounding investments, the success at this age can also determine the future prosperity of its population.  

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will make housing one of his top economic priorities for his incoming government.

In the April 28 federal election, Carney and the Liberals defeated Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, obtaining a minority government. Now that the campaign is over, the prime minister and the Grits will get to work and submit policies to grapple with some of the nation’s biggest challenges.

The prime minister, in his first press conference since winning the election, vowed to transform Canada’s economy as the country engages in battles at home and abroad. A key plank of his government’s priorities will be housing, pledging to “create an entirely new Canadian housing industry.”

As part of a broader effort to double the pace of homebuilding to approximately 500,000 new homes per year, Carney has revealed several key ideas to achieve this lofty aim:

• Extend $25 billion in financing for prefabricated home builders.
• Eliminate the GST on new homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million. The GST will also be removed for first-time buyers for newly-built homes below $1 million.
• Lower municipal development charges for multi-unit residential housing.
• Cap immigration levels to ease housing demand pressures.

In addition, the former head of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England will establish Build Canada Homes, a government agency overseeing affordable housing development.

In a real estate market as diverse as Canada’s, national averages hide more information than they reveal. CREA’s April data confirms what many Realtors on the ground already know: Canada’s housing performance depends entirely on where you are.

In Ontario and British Columbia, prices are softening, listings are rising, and buyers are treading carefully. But in Alberta, Quebec, and across much of Atlantic Canada, the picture looks very different. Prices are more stable, demand has sustained, and available inventory is tight.

This does not seem to be a temporary fluctuation. It’s the result of deep-running forces, which include household indebtedness, migration patterns, policy decisions, affordability gaps, and economic resilience. 

To understand where Canada’s housing market is heading, you need to stop looking at the average and start looking at the map.

The condo market meltdown in Canada’s largest cities is showing no signs of fading. Experts say the market has shifted significantly over the past few months, as supply soars and demand disappears.

“We’re pretty much at a recession in the condo market,” said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at Bank of Montreal.

The downturn is concentrated in Toronto and across southern Ontario, and to a lesser extent Vancouver, he explained. Other markets, like Edmonton and Montreal, are holding up better for now.

Condo sales in the Greater Toronto Area tumbled in April, with a 30 per cent year-over-year decline, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. The average price of $678,048 was 6.8 per cent lower than the same period a year ago, and is down 16.5 per cent since the peak of the market in 2022.

One mortgage broker says the latest rate cut by the Bank of Canada will benefit homeowners with variable mortgages, but the economic impact of U.S. tariffs could fuel mortgage competition among lenders, weighing on home prices in Ontario.

The Bank of Canada lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points Wednesday to 2.75 per cent, marking the seventh consecutive cut, with Governor Tiff Macklem saying signs of momentum in Canada’s economy are facing risks from a trade war with the U.S. Ron Butler, a mortgage broker at Butler Mortgage, said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg Wednesday that major Canadian banks are expected to lower prime rates by tomorrow. Before the end of the month, he said the lower rates will be reflected in variable mortgage rates with some seeing lower payments, but all seeing lower interest rates.

With variable rates moving lower, Butler said those deciding to between variable and fixed products should consider their employment situation.