More Ontario homes are selling below list price. Are bidding wars over? Is now a good time to buy?

New data from Wahi, a provider of property valuation services for the Canadian residential real estate market, suggests buyers could face fewer bidding wars in the Greater Toronto Area this spring as more would-be homebuyers wait on the sidelines.
A recent Wahi analysis found nearly two-thirds (65 per cent) of GTA homes sold for less than the list price in March. The figure is unchanged from February and up from March 2024 (53 per cent).
Will the Bank of Canada cut its lending rate again in April?

Canadians are eagerly waiting to see whether the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut its lending rate again at its upcoming April 16 announcement.
In March, Canada’s central bank cut its lending rate by 25 basis points, bringing the rate down to 2.75%. The cut was the BoC’s second rate reduction this year, as it also cut its lending rate by 25 basis points in January.
So, will there be a third consecutive cut in 2025? According to TD Director of Economics James Orlando, the BoC could go either way and announce a rate cut or a rate hold.
Tariffs set to slow pace of homebuilding in Canada

Lee said that, after weeks of President Donald Trump threatening to impose tariffs on Canadian exports, consumer confidence is already taking a hit.
He said fears about job insecurity tied to tariffs are likely filtering into the housing market, chilling investment demand and limiting hopes for a rebound this spring.
“We still have a bit of a slow market despite the fact that interest rates are coming down and we would expect that’ll continue to worsen as the trade war continues, if it does,” Lee said.
Canada has responded to Trump’s trade salvos with retaliatory tariffs targeting $30 billion worth of U.S. goods, with billions more in counter-tariffs set to follow in three weeks.
Canadian homebuilders say U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum would hurt more than they did in 2018

New forecast points to strong construction year even amid trade strife

This year may not see Calgary’s real estate market at its peak, a new report forecasts, but 2025 is likely to finish historically strong by many measures — even amid a threat of a trade war.
“It’s the same story across the Prairies markets,” says Michael Mak, housing economist with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. “We expect a continued, strong resale market in 2025.”
CMHC’s recently released 2025 Housing Market Outlook shows Calgary will see slowing population growth from record highs in previous years, resulting from the federal government slashing international migration quotas. Yet the city will still see strong inter-provincial migration, largely from more pricier real estate markets like Toronto and Vancouver, it adds.
BMO, RBC say interest rates could fall harder and faster with tariffs in play

Two of Canada’s largest banks say interest rates could fall faster and ultimately end up lower than previously predicted, as the consequences of a trade war with the U.S. are set to ripple through the Canadian economy.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order imposing a 25 per cent tariff on most Canadian imports, with a carveout for energy products that will be taxed at 10 per cent, came into effect as of 12:01 EST Tuesday.
It triggered chaos in global financial markets and caused Bank of Montreal to revise its economic and interest rate forecast, saying it expects at least twice as many interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada this year compared to previous estimates.
“We now look for the quarter-point pace to continue in each of the next four meetings until July, taking the rate to two per cent,” wrote Douglas Porter, the bank’s chief economist and managing director of economics, in a BMO Economics note published Tuesday.
“The net risk is that we eventually go even lower, if the (Bank of Canada) is comfortable with the prevailing inflation backdrop later this year.”
$400 million airport expansion begins at an Ontario city airport

The grand expansion of Hamilton’s John C. Munro airport is underway, with operators TradePort International announcing plans this month for upgrades and enhancements of the terminal facilities, as well as introducing daily flight from new partner, Porter Airlines.
The City of Hamilton and TradePort International signed off on a $400 million, 49-year agreement in September to develop and expand the airport over the next 50 years, a deal that has already started to pay dividends.
Upgrades happening include a terminal interior spruce up from check-in to baggage claim and enhancements to the exterior frontage.
Future improvements will better connect the terminal to the planes with new passenger bridges, as well as other infrastructure enhancements.
Home builders warn of ‘brutal blow’ to housing sector from steel, aluminum tariffs

TORONTO — Some developers say looming U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum could be detrimental to the housing sector due to higher costs of key construction materials.
The Ontario Home Builders’ Association, which represents more than 4,000 companies offering services such as development and renovation, said the tariffs could prompt an economic slowdown and lead to decreased investment in residential real estate.
The group’s CEO Scott Andison warned that could be “a brutal blow to the housing sector and therefore to housing affordability.”
“When you throw something as dramatic as trade tariffs into an environment that’s already suffering from low margins, high interest rates and high input costs, the potential for costs … going up makes builders quite nervous,” he said in an interview
“This is just something that puts the development market into a bit of chaos.”
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday to levy 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to his country beginning March 12 — a move that Canadian Chamber of Commerce chief executive Candace Laing called “wrong on so many levels.”
New listings soar in Canada’s housing market as tariff uncertainty weighs on sales

Uncertainty around tariffs and a potential trade war with the United States were the likely culprits behind home sales falling off during the last week of January, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). That weakness pushed national sales down 3.3 per cent compared to December, CREA said in its latest housing report.
At the same time, newly listed properties jumped 11 per cent month-over-month in January — uncommon for the typically slow winter season — reflecting “the largest seasonally adjusted monthly increase in new supply on record going back to the late 1980s,” the report said, aside from swings during the COVID-19 pandemic.

