Markets bet Bank of Canada hikes by late 2026 after jobs surprise

Markets increasingly expect the Bank of Canada’s next move will be a rate hike next year, as the country’s unexpected labour market strength suggests further monetary easing may not be needed despite U.S. tariffs.
Traders in overnight swaps are now fully pricing a hike from the central bank by October 2026. Just a day earlier, markets were assigning some probability of Governor Tiff Macklem and his officials cutting borrowing costs over the next year.
GTA REALTORS Release November Stats

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales, new listings, and average selling price were down compared to a year earlier in November 2024. Intending homebuyers remained on the sidelines awaiting more positive economic news.
“There are many GTA households who want to take advantage of lower borrowing costs and more favourable selling prices. What they need most is confidence in their long-term employment outlook. Fortunately, we saw encouraging news on jobs and the broader economy in November. If this positive momentum continues, consumer confidence will strengthen, and more people will be in a position to consider purchasing a home in 2026,” said TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule.
GTA REALTORS® reported 5,010 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in November 2025 – down by 15.8 per cent compared to November 2024. New listings entered into the MLS® System amounted to 11,134 – down by four per cent year-over-year.
Toronto condo projects stall as buyers stay away, leaving thousands of units frozen

Builders have given up trying to sell thousands of condo units in Toronto over the past five years, data shows, as the city’s housing market grinds almost to a complete standstill.
Between 2020 and 2025, 25 projects have stopped sales on more than 3,200 new units in and around Toronto, numbers pulled together by the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) reveal.
Say goodbye to rent control, indefinite leases if Ontario passes housing proposal: advocates

Ontario’s planned new housing legislation could open the door to ending rent control and indefinite leases across the province, advocates warn after a recent proposal by Premier Doug Ford’s government.
The Ford government introduced a new housing bill on Thursday that it says would streamline approvals and let developers build homes more quickly.
But buried in the legislation is a proposal for “alternative options to lease expiry rules that could allow landlords to control who occupies their units and for how long,” including through adjustments to rental arrangements based on “market conditions, personal needs or business strategies,” according to the province’s briefing slides Thursday.
Ontario’s Proposed HST Rebate Could Help First-Time Buyers Enter the Market

Affordability remains a persistent challenge for first-time buyers in Ontario. However, conditions are beginning to shift, with rising inventory, modest price adjustments across the province, and lower interest rates creating a more favourable environment for those ready to enter the market.
To add to this momentum, the Ontario government has proposed an HST rebate for first-time buyers, in the firm of a full rebate of the 8% provincial portion of the HST on newly built or substantially renovated homes valued up to $1 million. For buyers eager to make their move, this could be a step in the right direction to boost affordability and confidence. When combined with the federal 5% HST rebate, buyers could save up to $130,000 off the cost of a new home. These measures are designed to reduce upfront costs and encourage construction. Still, affordability challenges remain a key barrier, raising the question: Will it be enough to bring first-time buyers back into the market? REMAX research shows that 54% of Canadians believe this fall is a good time to strike a deal and incentives like this could further encourage first-time buyers to act.
Toronto Housing Market Outlook (2026)

Looking ahead to 2026, the Greater Toronto Area is expected to shift toward a balanced-to-buyer market, with conditions offering more opportunities for buyers while still maintaining steady demand. Price adjustments and lower interest rates are likely to support affordability, encouraging renewed activity across both entry-level and move-up segments.
The top three neighbourhoods expected to be most desirable in 2026 are Waterfront Communities (West of Yonge), the Bay Street Corridor, and the University area. The return to in-person work for government and finance employees, combined with price adjustments and lower interest rates, is making the condo and apartment market more accessible, driving renewed demand in these urban, transit-connected areas.
New carbon monoxide laws coming into effect for Ontario in January 2026

Carbon monoxide detectors save lives, and most provinces require them in your home. So it’s important to understand the rules and regulations that your region has in place. Starting Jan. 1, 2026, Ontario will be implementing new carbon monoxide regulations to keep residents safe from the ‘silent killer.’
“A major update that’s going to impact most people, I would say, is the addition of the requirement to have it on every level of your house,” says Scott Dalzell, Division Chief at Mississauga Fire and Emergency Services. “So, you know, a typical two- or three-story house, you’re going to have one basement level, main floor, second floor, and so on.”
More than 35,000 households left the GTA for other parts of Canada last year. Here is where they went

More than 35,000 households left the Greater Toronto Area for other parts of Canada last year with Simcoe County, Hamilton and Calgary topping the list of destinations, new data obtained by CTV News Toronto shows.
The data compiled by Environics Analytics, a marketing and analytical services company owned by Bell Canada, found that nearly 250,000 GTA households moved between the first quarters of 2024 and 2025, however the vast majority of those relocations were within the same census area – for example a Toronto resident moving to another neighbourhood within the city.
Of the 68,173 households that moved to another region, about 51.5 per cent (35,140) left the GTA altogether. Meanwhile, 48.5 per cent (33,033) relocated to other regions within the GTA.
Posthaste: Why Canadian home prices may not have hit bottom yet

Inventory has been building in the market for two years, especially in Ontario and British Columbia, where homes for sale reached a decades high in the spring, said Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.
However, new listings have now begun to moderate and were down 1.4 per cent nationally in October from the month before.

