After rents declined for the first time since 2021 in October, prices slipped even further in November, reaching a 15-month low.

By the end of the month, average asking rents for all unit types had hit $2,139, down 1.6% from last November and 0.6% from the previous month when rents had dropped 1.9%, according to the latest National Rent Report from Rentals.ca and Urbanation.

The year-over-year decline, the report points out, can largely be attributed to the falling of asking rents over the second half of 2024, with rents down 2.8% since July. This declining trend is encouraging for renters who have faced massive rent hikes in recent years, though rents still remain 6.7% higher than two years ago and 18.8% higher compared to three years ago.

Even if this is the last dip for a while, economists believe that first-time homebuyers may have a substantial edge.

Specifically, since this cut runs alongside recent amendments to insured mortgages (which boost the national price cap to $ 1.5 million) and the expansion of amortizations for first-time buyers — moving the timeline up to 30 years.

Rishard Rameez, who operates the Ontario-based real estate platform Zown, has been assessing these market trends to understand what 2025 may look like for would-be home buyers in Ontario.

“This December has been very different for us compared to last year. As of now, we are seeing a significant increase in inbound calls from people preparing a home purchase. Over the next two or three months, we are likely going to see a 20 to 30 per cent increase in first-time home buyers,” Rameez told INsauga.com.

Former Bank of Canada deputy governor Paul Beaudry expects policymakers to cut their key interest rate until it hits at least 2.75 per cent, with the path beyond that point less clear.

Beaudry said he expects the next move in January to be a quarter-point cut, after two half-point cuts in a row. Officials paired Wednesday’s rate decision with a statement that said they will evaluate the need for further cuts “one decision at a time,” but Beaudry said it’s obvious rates are still going to decline from this point.

The benchmark overnight rate is now at 3.25 per cent, the top end of the bank’s estimate for the so-called neutral range. The bottom of that band is 2.25 per cent, and Beaudry said the central bank will likely push to get to the middle of the range.

“It should be decreasing rather quickly to get there,” said Beaudry, who now teaches economics at the University of British Columbia. “Then the question is what will it do when it gets to the centre of that band, which is about 2.75 per cent?”

Recently, Abacus Data partnered with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness (CAEH), and the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada (CHF Canada) to conduct a comprehensive national survey to examine the current state of housing in Canada. This study, which engaged 6,000 Canadian adults (aged 18 and older) and was conducted between September 26 and October 9, 2024, sheds light on the ongoing challenges of housing affordability and accessibility, revealing significant concerns across the country.

This report is the first in a series examining the current state of housing in Canada, with a spotlight on the pressing challenges of affordability and accessibility that have become key concerns for Canadians. The findings highlight the extensive impact of the housing crisis, as these issues continue to dominate public priorities and fuel widespread concern about housing insecurity.

A surprise jump in the unemployment rate in November drove the loonie lower on Friday and raised odds among markets and some big banks for a second consecutive oversized interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada.

Canadian employers collectively added some 51,000 jobs in November, Statistics Canada said, but the unemployment rate jumped to 6.8 per cent as more people looked for work.

That brings the jobless rate 0.3 percentage points higher than in October and to its highest levels since January 2017, outside the COVID-19 pandemic years.

Across the country, job gains were in mainly full-time work and in the public sector last month, StatCan said.

Both the magnitude of the rise in the unemployment rate and the number of job gains last month topped the consensus of economists’ expectations.

Canadian real estate watchers are expecting home prices and housing activity to rise in 2025 after a “recovery year,” but the Bank of Canada’s policy rate will still have sway over how quickly buyers come back.

Royal LePage released its 2025 housing outlook on Thursday, forecasting the aggregate price of a home in Canada will hit $856,692 in the fourth quarter of next year, a 6.0-per cent year-over-year hike.

For the single-family detached market, prices are expected to rise 7.0 per cent annually to just over $900,000. Condos meanwhile are forecast to increase 3.5 per cent year-over-year to $605,993.

More affordable housing markets are expected to see the most sizeable gains next year, led by Quebec City (up 11 per cent), Edmonton and Regina (both up nine per cent). Montreal is forecast for 6.5-per cent growth, outpacing the metropolises of the greater Toronto (up 5.0 per cent) and Vancouver (up 4.0 per cent) areas.

Greater Toronto real estate buyers are returning, but the market has a long way to go. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows that both sales and home prices climbed in November. The positive market news is overshadowed by the unusually lofty levels of inventory that continue to rise. Rising prices demonstrates FOMO is returning since buying still hasn’t recovered to normal monthly levels—even before adjusting for population. However, sellers appeared in volumes rivaling some of the record’s busiest spring markets.

Greater Toronto real estate prices made a minor but potentially significant uptick. The benchmark, or typical, home price climbed 0.1% (+$1,400) to $1,061,700 in November. That’s 1.8% (-$19,600) lower than the same month a year prior. Monthly progress seemed relatively minor, but it was the first growth observed in over half a year. 

Real estate brokerage firm Royal LePage expects home prices to increase six per cent annually by the end of 2025, according to its annual market survey forecast released Wednesday, with prices set to climb across all major markets as more buyers come off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The 2025 survey found that the aggregate price of a home – calculated using a weighted average of the median value of all housing types – will rise six per cent annually by the fourth quarter of 2025 to $856,692. The aggregate price of a home is estimated to be $808,200 in the fourth quarter of this year. The report also says that the median price of a detached home is expected to increase seven per cent annually by the fourth quarter of 2025, from $841,900 this year to $900,833. Condominium prices are expected to rise at a more moderate pace, with prices set to increase 3.5 per cent annually over the same timeframe from $585,500 to $605,993.