A surprise jump in the unemployment rate in November drove the loonie lower on Friday and raised odds among markets and some big banks for a second consecutive oversized interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada.

Canadian employers collectively added some 51,000 jobs in November, Statistics Canada said, but the unemployment rate jumped to 6.8 per cent as more people looked for work.

That brings the jobless rate 0.3 percentage points higher than in October and to its highest levels since January 2017, outside the COVID-19 pandemic years.

Across the country, job gains were in mainly full-time work and in the public sector last month, StatCan said.

Both the magnitude of the rise in the unemployment rate and the number of job gains last month topped the consensus of economists’ expectations.

Canadian real estate watchers are expecting home prices and housing activity to rise in 2025 after a “recovery year,” but the Bank of Canada’s policy rate will still have sway over how quickly buyers come back.

Royal LePage released its 2025 housing outlook on Thursday, forecasting the aggregate price of a home in Canada will hit $856,692 in the fourth quarter of next year, a 6.0-per cent year-over-year hike.

For the single-family detached market, prices are expected to rise 7.0 per cent annually to just over $900,000. Condos meanwhile are forecast to increase 3.5 per cent year-over-year to $605,993.

More affordable housing markets are expected to see the most sizeable gains next year, led by Quebec City (up 11 per cent), Edmonton and Regina (both up nine per cent). Montreal is forecast for 6.5-per cent growth, outpacing the metropolises of the greater Toronto (up 5.0 per cent) and Vancouver (up 4.0 per cent) areas.

Greater Toronto real estate buyers are returning, but the market has a long way to go. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows that both sales and home prices climbed in November. The positive market news is overshadowed by the unusually lofty levels of inventory that continue to rise. Rising prices demonstrates FOMO is returning since buying still hasn’t recovered to normal monthly levels—even before adjusting for population. However, sellers appeared in volumes rivaling some of the record’s busiest spring markets.

Greater Toronto real estate prices made a minor but potentially significant uptick. The benchmark, or typical, home price climbed 0.1% (+$1,400) to $1,061,700 in November. That’s 1.8% (-$19,600) lower than the same month a year prior. Monthly progress seemed relatively minor, but it was the first growth observed in over half a year. 

Real estate brokerage firm Royal LePage expects home prices to increase six per cent annually by the end of 2025, according to its annual market survey forecast released Wednesday, with prices set to climb across all major markets as more buyers come off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The 2025 survey found that the aggregate price of a home – calculated using a weighted average of the median value of all housing types – will rise six per cent annually by the fourth quarter of 2025 to $856,692. The aggregate price of a home is estimated to be $808,200 in the fourth quarter of this year. The report also says that the median price of a detached home is expected to increase seven per cent annually by the fourth quarter of 2025, from $841,900 this year to $900,833. Condominium prices are expected to rise at a more moderate pace, with prices set to increase 3.5 per cent annually over the same timeframe from $585,500 to $605,993.

Since the federal mortgage stress test rolled out in 2018, a small percentage of mortgage renewers have been trapped with their current lender, like a bad arranged marriage. Government policy effectively blocked uninsured borrowers with higher debt ratios from changing lenders to get a better deal.

Our banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), addressed that problem on Thursday, but with stipulations. Here’s how things went down:

Seven years back, the feds started making uninsured mortgagors prove they could afford payments based on rates at least 200 basis points higher than the rate they actually paid. This “stress test” was key in preventing borrowing excesses and preparing borrowers for the big rate spike in 2022-’23.

But there was a nasty side effect. For some borrowers who accumulated debt — for good, bad or unavoidable reasons — the stress test meant they could no longer pass lenders’ debt-ratio tests.

The federal government’s plan to temporarily stop collection of the goods and services tax (GST) on some consumer products is causing some big holiday headaches for Canada’s small business owners.

The tax break, which passed in the House of Commons late Thursday, is scheduled to take effect on Dec. 14, 2024 and last until Feb. 15, 2025.

It would apply to dozens of items, including certain groceries, alcoholic beverages, restaurant meals, snacks, children’s clothing and toys, car seats, books, print newspapers, puzzles and Christmas trees.

But small business owners who spoke to Global News, describe the plan as “an IT nightmare.”

With the potential for millions of Canadians to see a bit of extra money in their pocket this spring from planned federal and provincial rebate cheques, a new report is suggesting the added money could mean at least one less interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada in the next year.

The report from TD Economics, released Wednesday, suggests the central bank will continue its rate-cutting cycle but with the planned cheques there may be less need for it to continue into 2025 at the same speed.

“The Bank of Canada has been cutting interest rates because they fear that the economy is so weak that they need to provide extra stimulus through lower interest rates,” James Orlando, director of economics at TD Bank, said in an interview.

OTTAWA – The Canadian economy shrank on a per-person basis for a sixth consecutive quarter as higher interest rates continued to weigh on business investment.

Statistics Canada’s gross domestic product report said the economy grew at an annualized rate of one per cent in the third quarter, down from 2.2 per cent in the second quarter.

Economists reacting to the latest GDP figures continue to be divided on whether the Bank of Canada will cut its key interest rate by a quarter or half a percentage point at its meeting next month.

Real estate experts say competition among lenders is expected to rise following a move by Canada’s banking regulator to officially remove stress test requirements for some homeowners looking to switch mortgage lenders at renewal.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced Thursday that uninsured mortgage straight switches will be exempt from the minimum qualifying rate (MQR). OSFI previously stated in September that it would ease stress test requirements for uninsured mortgages when switching providers, stating its intentions at the time to formally communicate the change in its Nov. 21 quarterly release.

“This eliminates a barrier that previously prevented borrowers from accessing better rates. The new rule will foster a more competitive lending environment where consumers have greater freedom to choose the best mortgage product, encouraging lenders to offer more attractive terms to retain customers,” Leah Zlatkin, a licensed mortgage broker and LowestRates.ca expert, said in a statement Thursday.