By Indradip Ghosh and Mumal Rathore

BENGALURU (Reuters) -The Bank of Canada will hold its overnight interest rate steady at 2.75% on July 30 for the third consecutive meeting thanks to a recent rise in inflation and a fall in unemployment, according to a Reuters poll of economists that still found many expect at least two more cuts this year.

The Canadian central bank has cut rates by a total of 225 basis points since June 2024, but has been on hold since March as policymakers await news on where a confusing barrage of U.S. tariff threats will eventually settle.

Beyond Toronto, housing markets across Southern Ontario are experiencing some of the steepest price declines in the country, as economic uncertainty and trade tensions take a growing toll on buyer confidence. 

Areas like Hamilton-Burlington, Niagara, and Kitchener-Waterloo are feeling the brunt of a market downturn driven by fears over tariffs. While the Greater Toronto Area has long been the focus, the softest conditions are now spreading outward into regions more vulnerable to external shocks.

Toronto and other large real estate markets in the country are seeing a rebound in demand and price growth for detached homes as signs of the “much-anticipated spring market materialized” last month, according to a new report from REMAX Canada.

“After a prolonged period of uncertainty, we’re starting to see slow but building momentum in Canada’s largest real estate markets,” Don Kottick, the president of REMAX Canada, said in a news release.

“Buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines for months, prepared and ready to pounce, are finally starting to make their moves.”

Have we ever been in a weird situation like this in the history of Canadian economy before?

All of these things are happening right now:

– Steadily rising core inflation even though covid was 4.5 years ago

– “Reduced” immigration levels, government can’t inflate the economy through new people

– Rising unemployment rate amongst core age workers (20-55) and record youth unemployment

– A trade deal not looking likely with out biggest trading partner until at least the end of the year

– BoC not making any moves and staying stubborn.

– RE prices steadily coming down.

While data show many potential homebuyers are sitting out of Toronto’s real estate market for now, it appears that those shopping for the GTA’s most expensive homes are doing the opposite.

Sales of ultra-luxury homes worth more than $10 million in the Greater Toronto Area are up 200 per cent for the first half of this year compared to the same period last year, according to a new report from Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.

“Residential sales in Canada’s largest luxury real estate market declined in the first half of 2025 as uncertainty slowed activity across much of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA),” the report says. “However, the region’s ultra-luxury real estate market defied headwinds, while sales activity in several of Toronto most prestigious neighbourhoods remained resilient.”

The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area new condominium market saw just 502 sales in the last quarter, prompting one real estate analysis firm to speak out about what it says is a “downturn that is really starting to wreak havoc.”

The number was included in Urbanation’s latest report, released Tuesday.

The firm said that the 502 new condominium units that changed hands in the second quarter marks a decline of 69 per cent compared to the same time period last year and represents a 91 per cent drop compared to the 10-year average.

“The market has entered a phase of the downturn that is really starting to wreak havoc. Project cancellations are mounting, construction starts are collapsing, jobs are being lost, buyers are losing a lot of money, and developers are facing difficulties with closings,” Urbanation President Shaun Hildebrand said in an analysis accompanying the data.

The federal government is providing a $650-million loan to support the construction of 1,285 new rental units in Scarborough, officials said Tuesday.

The units will be located in three residential towers built on the west side of the Scarborough Town Centre shopping mall, according to a news release Tuesday by Oxford Properties, the real estate developer that is building the property. 

268 units, or about 21 per cent, will be designated as affordable housing.

In 2018, the City of Toronto amended zoning bylaw to allow laneway suites on residential properties in the Toronto and East York District, expanding the permissions citywide by 2020 and with the addition of garden suites in 2022. The amendment was intended to increase the number of housing options and infill opportunities in the city, ultimately helping to improve affordability for Torontonians.

Now, the City is implementing additional measures to cut down approval timelines and make the construction of garden and laneway suites more accessible, including releasing free blueprints, expanding online services for building permit submissions, and including garden and laneway suites in the existing Reliance on Professional Engineer’s Seal program.