In a real estate market as diverse as Canada’s, national averages hide more information than they reveal. CREA’s April data confirms what many Realtors on the ground already know: Canada’s housing performance depends entirely on where you are.

In Ontario and British Columbia, prices are softening, listings are rising, and buyers are treading carefully. But in Alberta, Quebec, and across much of Atlantic Canada, the picture looks very different. Prices are more stable, demand has sustained, and available inventory is tight.

This does not seem to be a temporary fluctuation. It’s the result of deep-running forces, which include household indebtedness, migration patterns, policy decisions, affordability gaps, and economic resilience. 

To understand where Canada’s housing market is heading, you need to stop looking at the average and start looking at the map.

The condo market meltdown in Canada’s largest cities is showing no signs of fading. Experts say the market has shifted significantly over the past few months, as supply soars and demand disappears.

“We’re pretty much at a recession in the condo market,” said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at Bank of Montreal.

The downturn is concentrated in Toronto and across southern Ontario, and to a lesser extent Vancouver, he explained. Other markets, like Edmonton and Montreal, are holding up better for now.

Condo sales in the Greater Toronto Area tumbled in April, with a 30 per cent year-over-year decline, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. The average price of $678,048 was 6.8 per cent lower than the same period a year ago, and is down 16.5 per cent since the peak of the market in 2022.

One mortgage broker says the latest rate cut by the Bank of Canada will benefit homeowners with variable mortgages, but the economic impact of U.S. tariffs could fuel mortgage competition among lenders, weighing on home prices in Ontario.

The Bank of Canada lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points Wednesday to 2.75 per cent, marking the seventh consecutive cut, with Governor Tiff Macklem saying signs of momentum in Canada’s economy are facing risks from a trade war with the U.S. Ron Butler, a mortgage broker at Butler Mortgage, said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg Wednesday that major Canadian banks are expected to lower prime rates by tomorrow. Before the end of the month, he said the lower rates will be reflected in variable mortgage rates with some seeing lower payments, but all seeing lower interest rates.

With variable rates moving lower, Butler said those deciding to between variable and fixed products should consider their employment situation.

A provincial watchdog is warning that the glacial pace of Ontario’s overwhelmed landlord-tenant dispute system is denying justice to thousands of people — causing many to take desperate measures.

“Then you get self-help,” Kathy Laird, a Tribunal Watch Ontario committee member, told the Star. “Tenants who can’t get repairs done on their building might stop paying rent. Landlords who can’t get their tenants out might start taking other steps to get a tenant out illegally. Those things happen more than they used to.”

As rent prices climb and landlord/tenant disputes grow increasingly hostile, a largely provincial domain issue has spilled into the federal election campaign.

The NDP said this week they would implement national rent control if elected.

The party said it would also introduce a Renter’s Bill of Rights, and tie federal housing funding to rent control, tenant protections, and acting against “exploitive” landlords.

Canadians are eagerly waiting to see whether the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut its lending rate again at its upcoming April 16 announcement.

In March, Canada’s central bank cut its lending rate by 25 basis points, bringing the rate down to 2.75%. The cut was the BoC’s second rate reduction this year, as it also cut its lending rate by 25 basis points in January.

So, will there be a third consecutive cut in 2025? According to TD Director of Economics James Orlando, the BoC could go either way and announce a rate cut or a rate hold.

Lee said that, after weeks of President Donald Trump threatening to impose tariffs on Canadian exports, consumer confidence is already taking a hit.

He said fears about job insecurity tied to tariffs are likely filtering into the housing market, chilling investment demand and limiting hopes for a rebound this spring.

“We still have a bit of a slow market despite the fact that interest rates are coming down and we would expect that’ll continue to worsen as the trade war continues, if it does,” Lee said.

Canada has responded to Trump’s trade salvos with retaliatory tariffs targeting $30 billion worth of U.S. goods, with billions more in counter-tariffs set to follow in three weeks.